This paper analyzes the effects of industry structure similarities, free trade agreements, and geographic borders on regional business cycle correlation, using fifty US states, 10 Canadian provinces, and 1 Canadian territory as a case study. Using two cross-sectional OLS regressions and one panel data OLS regression, this study finds that pair-wise gross territorial product growth correlation decreased significantly after NAFTA ratification for state-state, province-province, and state-province territorial pairs, contrary to previous literature’s results. NAFTA effectively decoupled intra-national business cycles in the US and Canada while also desynchronizing cross-border pair-wise GSP growth correlation, but cross-border pair-wise GSP growth correlation was much less desynchronized post-NAFTA relative to intra-national pairs. These results indicate that NAFTA and the US-Canada border may produce two opposing forces that dampen each other’s desynchronizing effects.
Marll, Samuel D.
"Industry Structure Similarities, Trade Agreements, and Business Cycle Synchronization,"
Gettysburg Economic Review: Vol. 2
, Article 4.
Available at: https://cupola.gettysburg.edu/ger/vol2/iss1/4